the (un)real thoughts of realbt

Okay, so I’m not super-qualified to make predictions. But I’m still going to make them.

In mobile audio, some manufacturer will finally be smart enough to build a real iPod killer. Many have tried; all have failed. The new device will be cheaper, the same (or smaller), less conspicuous, and be free of the digital rights issues that iTunes enforces. (Okay, maybe the last one is just a wish..)

There will also be some sort of hybrid cell phone/mp3 player, probably running some Windows operating system on it. You will be able to purchase music from Microsoft’s online music store wirelessly from your phone. And of course, it will only be available on one network in the US. I think this such device was already rumoured in Q4 2004.

In a related Microsoft prediction, Microsoft will continue to fight Linux, via their wonderful SCO vehicle. Hopefully 2005 will see the end of SCO. There will be several major announcements by Microsoft about all the wonderful things that Longhorn will do that Linux and MacOS X can already do.

I also expect Microsoft will also release a semi-major update to Internet Explorer, adding options that Mozilla already has. All this, despite Microsoft’s recent announcement that there won’t be an update to IE until Longhorn.

Gmail beta will complete, and it will open up to the world. There will be slight stability issues as Google adjusts to the volume. When people exchange addresses on the street, people will no longer be passing around hotmail.com addresses.

Sun will do something big. I don’t know what. But they’re going to need to. And it’ll be pretty big, and pretty surprising.

IBM will invade China. That is, in the business platform solutions industry, thanks to their new ally in the country.

Digital rights will continue to be pulled tight. I don’t think there will be any good to come from any of it.

There are 4+ start-up companies in Canada, as well as a few older players in the industry, that are offering VoIP (Voice over IP). This isn’t of course new news — I’m just a little late writing my comments on the topic.

My first impressions of VoIP are that it’s definitely the way things will go. Copper analog lines carrying just voice are going to disappear probably within 10 in all but very rural areas. It makes sense to throw simple voice packets over the Internet, especially to far off places — it should save the consumer gobs of money.

But does that make today’s available (and I stress available) technology very useful? In my opinion, not particularly. I haven’t looked too deeply into the various offerings by the VoIP providers, but it doesn’t look like there will be much of a savings, unless you are a heavy land-line user (lots of lines, lots long distance, and lots of calling features). But even then, how much are you going to save?

I’ve had some cruddy luck with various high-speed access providers (both with Shaw and Telus over the years), and I’ve had my connections flake out. Because I have a land line, I can still communicate with the outside world (well, okay, I also have a cell phone for this, but that’s not really the point). If I only had Shaw cable and VoIP, and my cable connection went down, I would like my voice “land line” as well.

So, my point — VoIP is great. No, VoIP will be great. But right now, there are too many factors (price and potential for hiccups are the major two) that are going to stop wide adoption, and curse the technology because people will get fed up.

I’m sticking with my Telus line for now. Until I can get a VoIP line (even despite the hiccups issue) for 30-50% the cost of my Telus line with the exact same features, then I’ll consider switching. This is dirt, dirt cheap technology, so as far as I’m concerned, consumers should be saving a lot more than they already are. And I’m not just talking about long distance.